Dreams Into Lightning

Morning Report: 2008-10-05

Bearish on Russia?

Debka: Russian live-fire missile exercise near Alaska. Debka:

Not since 1984, just before the fall of the Soviet Union, has Russia ventured to launch dozens of nuclear bombers for an exercise in which Tu-95 Bear bombers will fire live cruise missiles. Exercise Stability 2008 will take place Oct.-6-12 over sub-Arctic Russia uncomfortably close to the US state of Alaska, and Belarus.

DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the exercise is part of a month-long war game described by Russian air force spokesman Col. Vladimir Drik as “practicing the strategic deployment of the armed forces including the nuclear triad.”

As part of the exercise, our sources reported exclusively on Oct. 1, that Russian ships armed with nuclear missiles will dock at Syrian ports Oct. 8, on the eve of Yom Kippur, before continuing to the Caribbean for joint maneuvers with Venezuela.

More than 60,000 troops and 1.500 tanks and APCs, as well as land-based and submarine-launched nuclear missiles, were tested in the first phase of the war games.

(“Nuclear triad” refers to three tiers of a national nuclear arsenal, usually strategic bombers armed with bombs or missiles, land-based missiles and ballistic missile submarines. These weapons must have a first- or second-strike capability.)

Col. Drik stressed that the Tu-95 and Tu-160 Blackjack strategic bombers will “carry their maximum combat payload and fire all the cruise missiles on board.” Also taking part in the air force exercise are Tu-22M3 Backfire strategic bombers, air superiority fighters, interceptors and aerial tankers.

The locations of the war games were deliberately chosen to underline three messages from Moscow to Washington:

1. Russian leaders are willing to brandish their nuclear strength in America’s face - to the north (Arctic) and south (Caribbean) – to challenge America’s position as the world’s No. 1 superpower.

2. Russia is powerful and rich enough to rise above the shockwaves rocking the world’s financial markets while carrying on developing its military muscle and expanding its spheres of influence.

3. By docking at the Syrian port of Tartus, the Peter the Great nuclear missile cruiser is Moscow’s marker on the Mediterranean to betoken the end of US Sixth Fleet’s sway. Last week, the Russian Navy united its Black Sea and Mediterranean fleet commands.

The Telegraph:

Over 60,000 troops and 1,500 tanks and armoured personnel carriers have taken part in the first fortnight of exercises. Land-based and submarine launched nuclear missiles have also been tested. Once the bombers have fired their cruise missiles next week, Russia will have carried out its first near-simultaneous test launches of all elements of its nuclear triad since the Cold War.

The has worried military observers critical of the Kremlin, who say the scope and character of the exercises does not gel with official explanations that they are designed to train the country's armed forces in counter-terrorism and military defence.

Pavel Felgenhauer, a respected military analyst, says the geographical reach of the exercises suggests that they are intended to simulate a nuclear war with the United States.

"Russia is preparing for the eventuality of a nuclear war," he said. "These are the most elaborate war games for 20 years and is clear evidence that we are returning to the Cold War."

Stratfor: 'Russia’s armed forces on Sept. 22 began conducting the “Stability-2008” strategic command staff exercises, Itar-Tass reported, citing the Russian Defense Ministry press service. The exercises are taking place under the command of Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov and will last until Oct. 21. Serdyukov said the exercises will be conducted in various areas of Russia and Belarus, with the cooperation of the Belarusian Defense Ministry.' More in Commentary section, below.

Helga and the cowboy. Bill Whittle has a terrific piece on an interview with an anti-islamist activist in Europe. He turns the America up to eleven, and then they get serious and learn why the hat - and the mask - cannot be taken off. I'm not going to try to explain - just read it.

Commentary. A post at the Small Wars Journal blog cites an article by Murray Feshbach in the Washington Post, which avers:

Predictions that Russia will again become powerful, rich and influential ignore some simply devastating problems at home that block any march to power. Sure, Russia's army could take tiny Georgia. But Putin's military is still in tatters, armed with rusting weaponry and staffed with indifferent recruits. Meanwhile, a declining population is robbing the military of a new generation of soldiers. Russia's economy is almost totally dependent on the price of oil. And, worst of all, it's facing a public health crisis that verges on the catastrophic.

The Telegraph article quoted above seems to back up this assessment of Russia's military strength: 'Not everyone is convinced as the Kremlin appears to be that Russia will soon be as militarily competitive as it was in the Cold War. Despite some improvements, the armed forces – and especially the air force and navy – are still in woeful condition and would be incapable of challenging a medium-sized European country in a conventional war, analysts say.'

Obama Courts the Felon Vote

MSNBC: "Push to register felons to vote could aid Obama." The headline says it all.

CNN claims NR rejected Obama - Ayers link ...

... but National Review doesn't seem to think so. Not that CNN will let that get in the way of a good story.

UPDATE: CNN has corrected the article.

Morning Report: 2008-10-03

Morning Report is going to skip the Palin/Biden debate. In other news ...

Debka: US warning to Syria on Lebanon. Debka:

Washington accompanied this warning to Damascus, DEBKAfile has learned, with its first explicit threat of military intervention to aid Lebanon should Syria go through with its planned incursion of the North.

The warning, according to our sources, was delivered on Sept. 28 by secretary of state Condoleezza Rice to the Syrian foreign minister Walid Mualem whom she invited for an urgent meeting in New York. The day after they met, Mualem was handed a second warning by undersecretary of state David Welch, who specified precisely which Syrian movements the US government would deem crossing the Lebanese border.
The harsh words from the top two American diplomats left the Syrian minister with little option but to promise there would be no Syrian incursion. However, in a number of subsequent interviews, Mualem claimed his talks with the two American officials focused on Washington’s support for the indirect talks between Jerusalem and Damascus, a tale made of whole cloth.

In the week since Washington warned Damascus off, nothing has changed in the Syrian military deployment on the Lebanese, our military sources confirm.

Debka previously reported that 'Damascus is pressing forward with its plan to occupy Greater Tripoli, Lebanon’s second largest city and port, DEBKAfile's military sources report. To this end, 10,000 Syrian commando troops have massed at Abboudieh on the Lebanese border ready to follow an advance force which occupied seven villages around the northern city earlier [in September] ...'.

Coalition forces nab 18 AQI suspects. MNF-Iraq: 'BAGHDAD – Coalition forces captured one wanted man and detained 17 additional suspects during operations to degrade the al-Qaeda in Iraq terrorist network throughout the country Thursday and Friday. Operations in Kirkuk Thursday netted four suspects believed to be associated with a regional AQI “emir.” An operation in the vicinity of Bayji, about 160 km south of Mosul, resulted in the capture of one wanted man assessed to be a local military “emir” for a terrorist organization associated with AQI. Two additional suspected terrorists were also detained during the operation. ...'

The dark hole of Gohardasht. Shir-o Khorshid Forever:

In the Name of Prosperity of Iran

It has been a long time since Mr. Mansour Radpour was taken to Section 1 of the Gohardasht Prison (Room 2), this section is also known as the “dark hole” where the prison is not allowed any time of outside contact including phone privileges or visitation.

I was also held in Section 1 of the Prison close to two months and know very well the types of torture Mr. Radpour is being subjected to. The guards in this section only “speak” to prisoners with their plastic and electrical baton’s. The prison is under 24 hour surveillance through a red camera in his cell. Also the prisoners are held with handcuffs at all times and sometimes their feet are cuffed as well.

In the Common ward of this section there are about 15-20 people who suffer from mental illnesses as well as infectious illnesses. These are prisoners who cannot be controlled and most prisoners prefer solitary cells to being in the same common ward as them.

Isn’t it time for the Iranian people and the human rights activists to force the officials of Gohardasht (Rajai Shahr) Prison to close the doors of this “dark hole” forever? The dark hole which is used to break down political prisoners and make them give up? ...

Long Live Iran Always
Behrouz Javid Tehrani
The last remaining political prisoner from July 1999 pro-democracy student demonstrations
Gohardasht (Rajai Shahr) Prison

Published by Human Rights and Democracy Activists in Iran

Translated by: Sayeh Hassan

Go to the link for full details.

A visit to the Rebbe. Van at Kesher Talk pays a Rosh haShanah visit to the last Lubavitcher Rebbe:

To think: who, truly, do I care about and want to mention in a written prayer, in this mystical time and place?

I wrote my letter, wishing for health and happiness, writing names in Hebrew and using mothers' names when I knew them. My son led the list, along with my brother, my late mother (Shirli bat Chava, which sounded close enough to Shirley daughter of Eva), and others who had suggested the visit, and those who I simply wished all good things for.

Afterward, the group from Stamford changed into plastic shoes and walked on a fenced-in path under grey skies to the building that had the tomb of the Rebbe and his father-in-law. Separate entrances for men and women separated people, although there was nothing like a mehitzah. I read Psalms 50, corresponding to my age, and then very quietly read my letter. People stood around a square pit, or tank, about 15 feet on each side, into which they placed their letters. I saw thousands of pieces of paper, mostly in Hebrew, nestled together in front of the headstones.

Go read it all.

Commentary. I never take Debka's reporting too seriously, but I'm encouraged by the claim that Washington is taking a strong stand on Lebanon.

Morning Report: 2008-10-02

The new Bush Doctrine.

Rice meets Syrian FM. The Standard: 'Two days after George W. Bush criticized Syria as a state sponsor of terror in a speech at the United Nations, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice met with Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Mouallem in New York. The meeting was first reported in the Syrian state press which noted that it took place at Rice's request. Mouallen told Al Hayat that the meeting represented a softening of the US position on Syria. It's a fair reading. ...' Continue reading at the link. Key quote: "The new Bush Doctrine: You are either with us or against us. Or both. Whatever." More at Commentary section below.

Debka: Russian nuclear missile cruiser to dock at Syrian port on Erev Yom Kippur. Debka:

Russian Navy spokesman Capt. Igor Dygalo disclosed Wednesday, Oct. 1, that a four-ship squadron led by the Peter the Great nuclear missile cruiser will call in at the Libyan port of Tripoli and “other Middle East ports” before heading out to the Caribbean for joint maneuvers with Venezuela.

DEBKAfile’s military sources report that one of those ports is Tartus, Syria, where preparations are afoot to receive the visiting Russian flotilla.

Peter the Great , one of the most advanced naval vessels afloat, may in fact anchor at the new facility the Russians are building at Syria’s second major port, Latakia, for its first visit to Syria; the rest of the squadron, the Admiral Chabanenko submarine, a reconnaissance vessel and a fourth ship, will dock at Tartus.

Peter the Great is designed to sink large surface vessels such as aircraft carriers. The ship’s Granit (Nato designated SS-N-19 Shipwreck) anti-ship cruise missiles (20 missile launchers) can destroy vessels up to 500 km distant in ripple-fire mode.

An S-300F defense missile complex is installed on Peter the Great , with 12 launchers and 96 vertical launch air defense missiles.

The Navy spokesman in Moscow said the Russian warships will perform maneuvers in the Mediterranean, without adding details. They will pass through the Strait of Gibraltar Sunday, Oct. 5, visit Tripoli next and on Oct, 8 or 9, put in at a Syrian port.

More at the link.

Pirates who seized Iranian ship show radiation poisoning signs. The Long War Journal, in an article referenced by Fox, notes:

A tense standoff is underway in northeastern Somalia between pirates, Somali authorities, and Iran over a suspicious merchant vessel and its mysterious cargo. Hijacked late last month in the Gulf of Aden, the MV Iran Deyanat remains moored offshore in Somali waters and inaccessible for inspection. Its declared cargo consists of minerals and industrial products, however, Somali and regional officials directly involved in the negotiations over the ship and who spoke to The Long War Journal are convinced that it was heading to Eritrea to deliver small arms and chemical weapons to Somalia's Islamist insurgents.

Fox has this:

As Somali pirates brazenly maintain their standoff with American warships off the coast of Africa, the cargo aboard one Iranian ship they commandeered is raising concerns that it may contain materials that can be used for chemical or biological weapons.

Some local officials suspect that instead of finding riches, the pirates encountered deadly chemical agents aboard the Iranian vessel.

Notice that there's no mention of nuclear material here. A little farther down, though, the article says:

Chemical experts say the reports sound inconsistent with chemical poisoning, but may reflect the effects of exposure to radiation.

"It's baffling," said Jonathan Tucker, a senior fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. "I'm not aware of any chemical agent that produces loss of hair within a few days. That's more suggestive of high levels of radioactive waste."

The Bald-Headed Geek comments: 'If so, that means that the Iranians are apparently in the business of exporting things that could clearly be used in terrorist attacks (likely against us or our allies). If so, the Iranians have gone way over the line from just being a hostile adversary. They are now bordering on something much more ominous and dangerous, not only for us but for the world at large.'

McCain in the Blade. Via Log Cabin Republicans, the Washington Blade has a Q&A session with Senator John McCain on lesbian and gay issues.

Iraqis clean up Jewish cemetery in Basra. Gateway Pundit:

Iraqi-American and friend Haider Ajina sends this wonderful news from Azzaman news service in Iraq:

Cleaning up of Jewish cemetery in Basra
By Abed Battat
Azzaman, September 28, 2008

Municipal authorities in the southern city of Basra have mounted a campaign to clean up the Jewish cemetery there. The cemetery is seen as one of Basra’s ‘cultural landmarks’ and the authorities want to keep it clean and tidy, said Ahmad al-Yasseri who heads the cleaning-up campaign.

There are no Jews left in the city which used to house a sizeable Jewish community of tens of thousands before the creation of Israel in 1948. They were the finest goldsmiths and the most adventurous traders of Basra, known as the Venice of the Middle East. The lived in one of the city’s smartest (English use means nicest) quarters with spacious villas adorned with palm trees and oranges.

Yasseri said in the tumultuous post-Saddam period, 62 houses were built on the cemetery grounds illegally. “This cemetery is one of the cultural landmarks of Basra and we are determined to remove the illegal dwellings,” he said.

Read the rest at the link.

Commentary. Tony Bey breaks out his decoder ring and deciphers Mouallem's cheery talk of "security cooperation":

Decoder, please. The key term here is "security cooperation." Once you understand what this means, the statement's sinister implications become clear. To understand the reference points, whenever you hear that term, "cooperation," uttered by a Syrian official, always think along the lines of the "Treaty of Brotherhood, Cooperation and Coordination" that the Syrian regime forced upon a vassal Lebanon under the boot of Syrian military occupation in 1991. That Treaty essentially codified the complete Syrian domination and dictating of Lebanese affairs. That's Assad's view of "normal" relations with Lebanon. As he put it earlier in the year, and again to recent visitors, the normal state of these relations, in Assad's mind, is "how they were a few years ago" -- i.e., when Syria military occupied Lebanon.

Goodbye to '68

Shana tovah, and a happy New Year to readers as we enter 5769 on the Jewish calendar.

Morning Report: 2008-09-29

A nuclear deal with India, Iranians turn out in London, and more.

House backs nuclear deal with India. BBC: 'The US House of Representatives has voted in favour of a landmark nuclear deal between India and the US. The agreement now goes to the Senate for final approval, before President George W Bush signs it into law. India PM Manmohan Singh, who was in New York for the UN General Assembly, has said India is close to securing a "new status" in the world nuclear order. ...'

Anti-IRI protest in London. Azarmehr: 'It was a much bigger turn out this year with many more English groups and individuals who had joined our ranks to oppose the march by the supporters of the Islamic Republic in the streets of London. The core Iranian groups consisted of the Alliance of Iranian Students, the Confederation of Iranian Students and other secular pro-democracy Iranian individuals, as well as some supporters of the jailed dissident cleric, Ayatollah Boroujerdi. We wanted to highlight the human rights abuses by the Islamic Republic in the last 28 years, we wanted to show the poverty, the destitute and the misery brought upon the people of Iran by the religious dictatorship ruling Iran. We wanted to tell the Palestinian people and the Lebanese people not to be fooled by this Islamic Republic propaganda stunt, for the mullahs have brought no peace and prosperity for our people and they will bring no peace and prosperity for any other people. ...'

Russian crew member dies aboard hijacked Ukrainian ship. Information Dissemination has the details.

Roundup. Daily Briefing from ThreatsWatch:

1. Russia’s Vladimir Putin has agreed to provide weapons and nuclear technology to Hugo Chavez and Venezuela as well as embark on a joint oil development venture between the two as ties deepen.

2. China’s Sinopec Oil has bought Syria’s Tanganyika Oil for $2 billion and should begin developing fields in Syria soon. Meanwhile, Venezuela has agreed to boost oil exports to China by 25%.

3. While the Pakistani investigation into the Marriott bombing continues, the United Nations may soon pull its people out of Pakistan.

4. Two suspected Somali terrorists were arrested by German police after boarding a flight to Amsterdam. In their apartment were found notes indicating the pair wanted to die for the “jihad.”

Go to the link for details and more.

Post-postmodern. The Belmont Club looks at the decline of leftist vocabulary in academic journals, in a study tracing the incidence of such shibboleths as "postmodern" and "social construction" and "hegemony". The Belmont Club notes:

The graphs suggest that while Marxist ideas in academia built up a tremendous head of steam in the decades after 1970 they began to rapidly decline at the turn of the 21st century. If this is true then perhaps Barack Obama is riding on a huge, enormously powerful, but declining political wave. Perhaps Michael Ledeen is only slightly premature in asserting that Obama represents the “fossilized remnants of a civilization that no longer exists”. The towers of the Left still climb to dizzying heights, but their foundations may be crumbling. Winston Churchill described the fate of men and movements that momentarily stand upon the crest of a wave that is about to topple over. “He was a cut flower in a vase, fair to see, yet bound to die, and to die very soon if the water was not constantly renewed.”

Even more startling is one theory Fernandez proposes for the cause of the decline: that it is precisely the rise of non-Western cultures like China and India that has consigned the vocabulary of the Western elites to irrelevance.

The new look in kippot. Seraphic Secret has the photos.

Commentary. Here's The Spirit of Man on Obama and Iran:

I have been away for the past few days so I had a brief chance to watch the presidential debate and saw what empty suit Obama had to say about negotiating with the Iranian Mullahs. Clearly, he and his team of 300 experts have no clue about the nature of the criminal entity that is running Iran. Obama thinks his empty suit and rhetoric will scare the mullahs and make them behave better. Well, he has been wrong on every single issue, from Iraq, Russia to Iran and beyond. Sen. Hussein Obama doesn't understand that his willingness to sit down with the crazy clerics will be interpreted as a sign of weakness.

Follow the link to Michael Oren and Seth Robinson in the Wall Street Journal for a review of Iran's recent history in international negotiations.

Palin Disinvited from Fallout Shelter

Iowahawk has the details.

Remember the Keating Five!

The Keating Five was four Democrats, plus John McCain. And McCain was cleared.

Sarah Palin Iran Speech

The New York Sun has printed the speech that Governor Sarah Palin would have given at the United Nations rally:

I am honored to be with you and with leaders from across this great country — leaders from different faiths and political parties united in a single voice of outrage.

Tomorrow, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will come to New York — to the heart of what he calls the Great Satan — and speak freely in this, a country whose demise he has called for.

Ahmadinejad may choose his words carefully, but underneath all of the rhetoric is an agenda that threatens all who seek a safer and freer world. We gather here today to highlight the Iranian dictator's intentions and to call for action to thwart him.

He must be stopped.

The world must awake to the threat this man poses to all of us. Ahmadinejad denies that the Holocaust ever took place. He dreams of being an agent in a "Final Solution" — the elimination of the Jewish people. He has called Israel a "stinking corpse" that is "on its way to annihilation." Such talk cannot be dismissed as the ravings of a madman — not when Iran just this summer tested long-range Shahab-3 missiles capable of striking Tel Aviv, not when the Iranian nuclear program is nearing completion, and not when Iran sponsors terrorists that threaten and kill innocent people around the world.

The Iranian government wants nuclear weapons. The International Atomic Energy Agency reports that Iran is running at least 3,800 centrifuges and that its uranium enrichment capacity is rapidly improving. According to news reports, U.S. intelligence agencies believe the Iranians may have enough nuclear material to produce a bomb within a year.

The world has condemned these activities. The United Nations Security Council has demanded that Iran suspend its illegal nuclear enrichment activities. It has levied three rounds of sanctions. How has Ahmadinejad responded? With the declaration that the "Iranian nation would not retreat one iota" from its nuclear program.

So, what should we do about this growing threat? First, we must succeed in Iraq. If we fail there, it will jeopardize the democracy the Iraqis have worked so hard to build, and empower the extremists in neighboring Iran. Iran has armed and trained terrorists who have killed our soldiers in Iraq, and it is Iran that would benefit from an American defeat in Iraq.

If we retreat without leaving a stable Iraq, Iran's nuclear ambitions will be bolstered. If Iran acquires nuclear weapons — they could share them tomorrow with the terrorists they finance, arm, and train today. Iranian nuclear weapons would set off a dangerous regional nuclear arms race that would make all of us less safe.

But Iran is not only a regional threat; it threatens the entire world. It is the no. 1 state sponsor of terrorism. It sponsors the world's most vicious terrorist groups, Hamas and Hezbollah. Together, Iran and its terrorists are responsible for the deaths of Americans in Lebanon in the 1980s, in Saudi Arabia in the 1990s, and in Iraq today. They have murdered Iraqis, Lebanese, Palestinians, and other Muslims who have resisted Iran's desire to dominate the region. They have persecuted countless people simply because they are Jewish.

Iran is responsible for attacks not only on Israelis, but on Jews living as far away as Argentina. Anti-Semitism and Holocaust denial are part of Iran's official ideology and murder is part of its official policy. Not even Iranian citizens are safe from their government's threat to those who want to live, work, and worship in peace. Politically-motivated abductions, torture, death by stoning, flogging, and amputations are just some of its state-sanctioned punishments.

It is said that the measure of a country is the treatment of its most vulnerable citizens. By that standard, the Iranian government is both oppressive and barbaric. Under Ahmadinejad's rule, Iranian women are some of the most vulnerable citizens.

If an Iranian woman shows too much hair in public, she risks being beaten or killed.

If she walks down a public street in clothing that violates the state dress code, she could be arrested.

But in the face of this harsh regime, the Iranian women have shown courage. Despite threats to their lives and their families, Iranian women have sought better treatment through the "One Million Signatures Campaign Demanding Changes to Discriminatory Laws." The authorities have reacted with predictable barbarism. Last year, women's rights activist Delaram Ali was sentenced to 20 lashes and 10 months in prison for committing the crime of "propaganda against the system." After international protests, the judiciary reduced her sentence to "only" 10 lashes and 36 months in prison and then temporarily suspended her sentence. She still faces the threat of imprisonment.

Earlier this year, Senator Clinton said that "Iran is seeking nuclear weapons, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is in the forefront of that" effort. Senator Clinton argued that part of our response must include stronger sanctions, including the designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organization. John McCain and I could not agree more.

Senator Clinton understands the nature of this threat and what we must do to confront it. This is an issue that should unite all Americans. Iran should not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons. Period. And in a single voice, we must be loud enough for the whole world to hear: Stop Iran! ...

Read the rest here.

Olmert Resigns; Livni to Succeed

Fox:

JERUSALEM — Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni wasted no time Sunday working to put together a new government, meeting with potential coalition partners even as outgoing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert formally handed in his resignation. Her ability to move fast in her first task could have far-reaching effects on peace talks with the Palestinians.

Livni, who has gained respect for favoring peace deals with the Palestinians and Syria while distancing herself from the unpopular Olmert, would become Israel's second female prime minister after Golda Meir, who served from 1969-1974.

Livni met leaders from the pivotal Shas Party Thursday, hours after she won a primary election to succeed Olmert as head of their Kadima Party ...

Jerusalem Post:

New Kadima leader Tzipi Livni thanked Prime Minster Ehud Olmert for his offer to assist her in the coalition-building process and insisted that there were no splits in Kadima, she told her faction prior to Sunday's cabinet meeting.

Debka:

Transport minister Shaul Mofaz’s announcement of time out from politics and his public duties after he lost the Kadima leadership primary to foreign minister Tzipi Livni by a single percent has seriously divided the party. His supporters claim he was treated unfairly by the party and media, all of which promoted Livni and impugned his credibility.

The many Mofaz loyalists who are uncomfortable with the foreign minister’s views and personality may drift out of the party - some returning to Likud. Kadima which went into the election top-heavy looks like losing the few soldiers (only 74,000 registered voters) it had.

Her party's shrinkage further compounds the already daunting task facing the new Kadima chairwoman in taking over the incumbent government from Ehud Olmert, who is committed to quit after the primary, or forming a new coalition.

Morning Report: 2008-09-21

Pakistan's 9/11 shows terror's global reach.

Marriott bombing in Islamabad, Pakistan. ThreatsWatch:

A truck bombing of the Islamabad Marriott Hotel in Pakistan has killed at least 60 and wounded more than 200. The Marriott is about a quarter mile from Pakistan’s national parliament and the prime minister’s residence.

While the BBC reports a security official speculating that either of these was likely the primary target, the ThaiIndian News reports that senior CIA officers staying at the Islamabad Marriott were the primary targets. ...

Walid Phares at CTB:

This is a warning to Pakistani civilian and military authorities to break all ties to the American-led campaign against Terror. But more precisely to reject NATO incursions after al Qaeda inside Pakistan. Already the new public agenda of the current Administration in Islamabad openly warns against US raids across the borders for domestic political reasons. The new President pledged, few hours before the explosion, that he will carry the campaign against the Terrorists but at the same time he will refuse American military interventions on his national soil. The Jihadi bloodshed in the city is a "mega-warning" that al Qaeda and the Taliban will respond inside the country against pressure coming from across the border.

In the end, the Jihadist plan can be summarized as follow:

1. Intimidate the Government into a pull back position
2. Containing the Pakistani military efforts against Waziristan
3. Create a wedge between the Army and the Government
4. Trigger a crisis between Washington and Islamabad

Debka:

Many people were trapped in rooms of the burning five-star Marriott Hotel in the Pakistan capital after a suicide bomber detonated a large truck loaded with a ton of explosives at the hotel gate, killing at least 60 people and injuring some 200 more. The Marriott, frequented by foreigner and local VIPs and the hotel of choice for American officials, is danger of collapse. The ceiling of the banqueting hall crashed down on 500 guests at the Ramadan evening meal. The Pakistani president and prime minister were to have attended, but changed their plans. The blast left a huge crater outside the US-owned hotel, which has been attacked by terrorists twice before, and destroyed dozens of cars and neighboring buildings.

Bill Roggio - Long War Journal:

The bombing at the Marriott hotel in Pakistan's capital of Islamabad is shaping up to be one of the country's most deadly attacks. The complex attack is the latest in a series of al Qaeda attacks that have occurred in the Middle East and South Asia.

More than 70 people have been reported killed and 257 have been reported wounded so far in what the Pakistani press has dubbed "Pakistan’s 9/11." The death toll is expected to rise as more people are believed to have been trapped in the hotel. Dozens of Westerners have been wounded in the attack, and there are unconfirmed reports one or more Westerners have been killed.

Arutz Sheva quotes Evan Kohlmann:

In President Zardari’s speech prior to the bombing, he condemned the actions of foreign militaries that are crossing the border from Afghanistan in the war against Muslim militants. Many suspect Saturday’s hotel bombing to be a retaliation for such raids, such as last week’s, in which dozens of terrorists were killed by U.S.-led coalition forces in the areas of Bajaur and Swat, near Afghanistan.

Evan Kohlmann, an American terrorism consultant who has worked for the FBI and other governmental organizations, said that Saturday’s bombing is the work of Al-Qaeda or the Taliban. “We are looking at either Al Qaida or Tehrik-e-Taliban [Pakistan’s Taliban] ," said Kohlmann. "It seems that someone has a firm belief that hotels like the Marriott are serving as 'barracks' for western diplomats and intel personnel, and they are gunning pretty hard for them."

McCain - Palin pull ahead in Missouri, South Carolina. Missouri: 49 McCain, 45 Obama. Gateway Pundit has the details.

Fukuda, and the horse he rode in on. BBC: 'Almost exactly a year to the day after it last convened to select a new leader, Japan's governing Liberal Democratic Party is doing it again. Their last leader, Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, resigned abruptly at the beginning of September, complaining that he could no longer achieve what he wanted because of deadlock in the parliament where the opposition controls the upper house. ... For the third time in a row Japan's new leader will be selected by politicians, not by the voters.' Details at the article.

Commentary. The Belmont Club looks at a battle in Afghanistan that turned into a rout for French paratroopers.

The attack on the French illustrates how much of the fighting in Afghanistan originates from planning cells and training camps in Pakistan. None of this is news. Bill Roggio says that not only are new attacks on NATO being planned in Pakistan, it has long been suspected that the ‘next September 11′ is brewing in the Pakistani tribal areas. American commanders are caught between standing by and watching it happen or acting to prevent it and precipitating the disintegration of Pakistan.

Pakistan embodies the dilemma for the United States as a nation fighting a national war in a transnational world. Here's Totten:

The war against Saddam Hussein in Iraq can plausibly be described as a distraction from the war against Al Qaeda. But the war against Al Qaeda in Iraq cannot possibly be accurately described as a distraction from the war against Al Qaeda.

And make no mistake: Al Qaeda’s manpower and resources have been thoroughly degraded from its disastrous fight with Americans and Iraqis, especially in Anbar Province which was briefly established as Al Qaeda’s “capital” of the so-called “Islamic State in Iraq.” ...

The United States could not have prudently allowed itself to yield the field to Al Qaeda in either Iraq or Afghanistan by being wholly distracted from one or the other. Both fronts were crucial for Al Qaeda, which means both were crucial for the United States. It doesn’t matter if we like the fact that we have been embroiled in a hot war with Al Qaeda in two countries at once. That’s just how it is.

Back to the Long War Journal piece quoted earlier:

The attack on the Islamabad Marriott is the latest in series of complex strikes against hardened locations or military formations in the Middle East and South Asia over the last five years by al Qaeda, the Taliban, and their allies. These attacks require logistical and financial support, training, coordination, intelligence gathering, and access to weapons and explosives.

Al Qaeda and allied movements have conducted multiple complex attacks in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, Yemen, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. The first strike occurred in Saudi Arabia, before al Qaeda in Iraq even began its insurgency and terror campaign.

Al Qaeda has reformed Brigade 055, the infamous military arm of the terror group made up of Arab recruits, US military and intelligence sources told The Long War Journal in July. The unit is thought to be commanded by Shaikh Khalid Habib al Shami.

Brigade 055 fought alongside the Taliban against the Northern Alliance and was decimated during the US invasion of Afghanistan. Several other Arab brigades have been formed, some consisting of former members of Saddam Hussein’s Republican Guards, an intelligence official told The Long War Journal. These units have helped to increase the Taliban's sophistication in military operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Go to the link to read it all - there's lots more.

And finally, The Belmont Club weighs in on the bombing.

Morning Report: 2008-09-19

How low can you go?

Palin uninvited from Iran rally. Phyllis Chesler: 'The Jewish Telegraphic Agency has just confirmed that Governor Sarah Palin–a strong supporter of Israel–has been disinvited from the rally against President Ahmadinejad. I suggest that my readers call the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations to protest this short-sighted and outrageous decision. Their number is 212-318-6111.' [I've just called them myself. - aa] Nice work, J Street!

Sarah Palin's e-mail hacked. And in another blow for the liberal values of open and respectful debate, Governor Palin's e-mail was hacked. But oh, what a terrible waste of time: it was all for nought.

... I read though the emails… ALL OF THEM… before I posted, and what I concluded was anticlimactic, there was nothing there, nothing incriminating, nothing that would derail her campaign as I had hoped, all I saw was personal stuff, some clerical stuff from when she was governor…. And pictures of her family

I then started a topic on /b/, peeps asked for pics or gtfo and I obliged, then it started to get big

Earlier it was just some prank to me, I really wanted to get something incriminating which I was sure there would be, just like all of you anon out there that you think there was some missed opportunity of glory, well there WAS NOTHING, I read everything, every little blackberry confirmation… all the pictures, and there was nothing ...

Don't you hate it when that happens? Oh, and this little twerp is apparently the son of a Democratic state representative:

NASHVILLE - State Rep. Mike Kernell said today that he was aware of Internet rumors about his son being the subject of speculation that he accessed the personal e-mail of vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin.

Asked whether he or his son, a student at the University of Tennessee-Knoxville, had been contacted by authorities investigating the break-in of Palin's account, he responded:

"Me, no."

As far as his 20-year-old son, David, he said: "I can't say. That doesn't mean he has or hasn't (been contacted by investigators)."

Kernell, D-Memphis, cited the father-son relationship.

Brave villagers rescue schoolchildren from terrorists. Via Gateway Pundit, AKI:

Upper Dir, 18 Sept. (AKI) - Local people in northwest Pakistan on Thursday fought three militants and freed about 300 school students who had been taken hostage earlier in the day.

The residents stormed the primary school building in the Upper Dir district of the North West Frontier Province, bordering Afghanistan, where three suicide bombers were holding the children.

According to media reports, the captors engaged in a gun battle before freeing all the captives unhurt. ...

Airport to nowhere?

Concern about Governor Sarah Palin and earmarks, at the WSJ.

Last week, Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain said his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, hadn't sought earmarks or special-interest spending from Congress, presenting her as a fiscal conservative. But state records show Gov. Palin has asked U.S. taxpayers to fund $453 million in specific Alaska projects over the past two years.

These projects include more than $130 million in federal funds that would benefit Alaska's fishing industry and an additional $9 million to help Alaska oil companies. She also has sought $4.5 million to upgrade an airport on a Bering Sea island that has a year-round population of less than 100. ...

Read the rest at the link. Via The Right Coast, via Instapundit. Watch Insty for updates.

UPDATE via This Ain't Hell:

OUTRAGE! How dare Palin attempt to pork up some ghost town speck of rock in the Pacific? Airport to Nowhere indeed! There's no good reason for this federal spending.

Or is there?

Adak Island is the new home port of the newest sensor in the US ballistic missile defense (BMD) system, the one-of-a-kind Sea-Based X-Band Radar (SBX) ...

Gee, almost sounds like the Governor of Alaska might have some involvement with national security issues. But back to the earmark thing - here's TAH:

Somehow, the Wall Street Journal thinks that taking earmarks from Congress is the same as giving earmarks from Congress and uses a governor’s requests as evidence of her (and McCain’s) insincerity about ending earmarks.

A governor’s responsibility is first to her own taxpayers and with a Congress more than willing to shell out money for pet projects of it’s members to buy job security, it was also her responsibility to get as much free money to make life easier for as many residents as possible. Does the Wall Street Journal think that if Palin hadn’t spent that money that Congress would have written the rest of us a check to return that money to the taxpayers?

I’ve said on this blog in the past that the closer government is to the people, the more liberal it should be - a governor knows better how to spend money in her state than a bureaucrat in Washington. If government sees it’s job as redistribution of wealth to benefit the least of us (I don’t agree, by the way, but government does see itself as that these days), and we know damn well that government is going to spend every dollar they get (and more), who can fault a governor for getting as much of that money as they can for their own people to improve their own states?

The problem is in Washington, not in Alaska. Fault the Democrats AND Republicans who refuse to break free of the culture of buying votes with tax dollars.

Chicago Boyz puts it in a nutshell:

Governors cannot earmark. Indeed, governors may not make any formal input to federal legislation in the least.

The Wall Street Journal needs to reread the Constitution.

The problem with earmarks lies less in their often seemingly trivial and non-federal import than in the unaccountable mechanism by which individual federal legislators turn them into law. Earmarks lead to corruption by allowing individual legislators to reward constituents and contributors without having to stand up and argue publicly for spending the funds. In short, earmarks represent a defect in the parliamentary procedure of the federal Congress. The term “earmark” isn’t simply shorthand for “federal spending I do not like.”

As such, earmarks represent a flaw in the federal Congress, not the state governments. ...

Why Judith Warner feels small.

Mark Hemingway at The Corner.

Warner should feel threatened, not by Sarah Palin supporters, but by the fact that she's so narrow minded that she can't wrap her head around the fact that there are people out there — and lots of them — who disagree with her. America is a messy place ideologically and culturally, and it's a glorious mess at that. That's a fact that reporters should embrace and try to understand, not whine about how it makes them feel small. All of that verbiage and it never occurs to Warner that the reason she feels small around people who aren't like her is because she is small.

Read the whole thing.

Sarah Palin ABC Interview - Unedited

Unedited transcript of Sarah Palin interview by Charlie Gibson - excised portions are highlighted.

Via Exit Zero.

Charles and Charles vs. Charles

Johnson and Krauthammer vs. Gibson:

Charles agrees with me that Charlie doesn’t know the real meaning of the “Bush Doctrine.” And Charles should know; he coined the term ...

Read the rest at LGF.

Rav Kook Symposium

Arutz Sheva has an excellent post on Rabbi Abraham Isaac Kook (1865-1935):

(IsraelNN.com) As part of the ongoing commemorations of the 73rd anniversary of the death of the saintly Rabbi A. I. HaCohen Kook, the Beit HaRav museum/educational center will sponsor a symposium on the topic of Modern-Day Teshuvah this Wednesday evening.

Speakers such as Rabbi Yaakov Filber, Michi Yosefi, and others will address the relationship between the philosophies of Rabbi Kook and Rebbe Nachman of Breslov. ...

Go to the link for excerpts from the speakers' comments. For background, here's Wikipedia on Rav Kook:

Abraham Isaac Kook (1865–1935) was the first Ashkenazi chief rabbi of the British Mandate for Palestine, the founder of the Religious Zionist Yeshiva Merkaz HaRav, Jewish thinker, Halachist, Kabbalist and a renowned Torah scholar. He is known in Hebrew as הרב אברהם יצחק הכהן קוק HaRav Avraham Yitzchak HaCohen Kook, and by the acronym HaRaAYaH or simply as "HaRav." He was one of the most celebrated and influential Rabbis of the 20th century. ...

See also: Rabbi Chanan Morrison's Rav Kook site.